technology

Cringely bets that Facebook is getting so large that they are bound to fail and notes that as our social networks get larger, the VALUE of those networks becomes less and less.

Facebook is useless to me. We’re all too connected to really connect.

Yes, I hide all the Mafia warriors and the Farmers and those people lately who are so thrilled to be breeding weird little animals. I hide as many of my inane friends as I can. I don’t join any groups and I am a fan of nothing, but it still doesn’t matter. There are people whom I’d actually like to know what they are doing and maybe they care about me, too, but we just no longer meet-up.

He doesn’t offer any proof or rigor, but it’s true for me as well.  Interesting that social networks appear to invert the network effect.

He also notes that for publications there is an optimal circulation size for an advertising base – making it quite possible to become too large to make money.  Cringely’s suggestion is for Facebook to way to weed out the least profitable customers so the value to advertisers (and CPMs) is higher.

But Facebook doesn’t want to be Time magazine, they want  to be Google – number of impressions is all.  BUT if people stop getting value from the networks they’ve built in Facebook those numbers will plummet.

The right solution isn’t booting people from Facebook – the cost per user approaches zero.  The RIGHT solution is fixing Facebook so even an incredibly large network is still compelling to the user.  And the solution is dead simple in concept (if very difficult in implementation and design).

I don’t have 487 friends – I have a dozen networks of people with only a very small number of those people being in more than one network.  Facebook’s networks help FIND people with similar interests, but do nothing to help MAINTAIN connections with those people.

The solution is personas.

If Facebook is going to kill off all the mailing lists, bulletin boards, yahoo groups, blogging networks, etc that allow me to keep my personas locked into different online spaces (which they are currently doing at a rapid pace), they are going to have to stop forcing me to lump family, friends, co-workers, long lost high-school friends, Thrashers’ fans, college alumni and neighbors into a single network.

Facebook’s list functionality sort of allows me to organize my networks and switch between them – but it’s clunky at best.  What’s more it is something that should be automated by Facebook.  They can see all those potential  interconnections when I add a friend and should be able automatically drop them into the correct network.   Furthermore it should be simple enough to figure out which persona I’m currently wearing based on my activities.

They’re not shy about ignoring privacy to sell ads, how about giving ME some of the benefits of the all seeing eye?  If I’m looking at the activities of the other parents on my kid’s soccer team the ad targeting can be scary precise (and much more valuable.

Hmmm – a massive network of people that can be sold against in very specific niche interest areas and current activities…

sort of like Google adwords.

Playing with a couple email tools today.  Etacts and its gmail plugin is a VERY nice enhancement, essentially putting all the functionality of xobni into web-based email.  You see contact info, linkedin profile and social activities of the sender in an expandable sidebar.  It also allows group activities and minimal boilerplate email blasting (first name, last name substitution).

Gist is more of cross-network aggregator that creates a profile page of all your web activities, but more useful, attempts to do the same for all of your email, linkedin, facebook, twitter contacts – so you can watch their activities in a single place.

Both include light CRM features – contact reminders and history and importance weighting for emails/activities

The Periodic Table of the Elements, ebook for iPad is getting lots of breathless reviews.  It’s a pretty launch title and the iPad itself, like the iPhone before it just seems to have come from the future.

Meh.

I made several award winning consumer CD-ROMs back in the day, before the industry collapsed with he advent of the internet.  But that whole market was largely built on the willingness of people who’d just spent $1500 on a multimedia capable PC being willing to spend another $40 or $60 on a handful of non-game edutainment titles to justify the purchase.  In just a couple years we devolved from Passage to Vietnam, my own A.DAM The Inside Story and Faces of Conflict to selling edutainment titles by the linear foot.

Though I wish I were wrong, digital coffee table books aren’t making a comeback, no matter how pretty the iPad screen is, nor how intuitive the UI other than as a justification by early adopters for buying the device.

It’s nothing more than Apple’s hype machine plus traditional media hoping that the iPad is going to be the savior for paper publishers that iTunes has (almost) been for music.  But people aren’t turning away from newspapers and magazines just because they can get the same stuff for free online. They are doing it because they’re spending less of their free time consuming mass media and more of it collaborating and creating – posting photos to Flickr, messaging on Facebook (or God forbid Farmtowning)  and surfing through youtube videos instead.  All of which you can do all with an iPad while sitting on the couch with Dancing with the Stars on in the background.

I have come around to thinking the iPad is going to be an important device – it’s a great form factor for a lot of horizontal apps (think insurance adjusters, roofing contractors, and census takers) and for casual use where a laptop is just too much (in a book bag or on the couch).

Low subscription price episodic content might work – Apple managed to create the create the first successful microcontent venture in iTunes after all.  But how much of an upcharge can you get for The Daily Show on an iPad when I can get it on my laptop for free?

But maybe I’m wrong.  If anybody thinks ebooks with embedded video and 3d photos is the next big thing, drop me a line – I’ve got the chops and would love to be creating beautiful edutainment titles just as long as you can find enough people willing to hand over $13 a pop to look at them.

I thought the space was a little crowded, but whoa.

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from – bdnooz.com

Ada LovelaceI’ve had more women bosses and co-workers than I can count, so I couldn’t possibly name them all. But atypically, most of my high school science teachers and favorite CS professors were women. So I’d like to thank Shirley Kitchens (HS chemistry/AP chemistry), Jane Lusk (HS biology/AP biology), Dr. Methyl Hodges (HS math/pre-calculus), her daughter, Dr. Julia Hodges (MSU CS department chair), Dr. Susan Bridges (MSU CS) for turning interest into vocation for me and hundreds if not thousands of others.

Had a friend with battery life issues with a new droid ask for tips. So I’m repurposing. Droid mileage may vary, my G1 has a slower processor, but get 1 1/2 to 2 days between charges all the time.

A few things.

1) Make sure the power monitoring is right:
- When I first got my G1 it would claim that it was about to be out of power after only 6 hours or so. I eventually was out and about and let it run down instead of scrambling to recharge. It ran for 12+ hours before finally shutting down. After that it seemed to reset how quickly it would think it was running down. I’ve seen the same thing happen with 2 other G1s, so maybe there is an issue in the power management/recharge warning system for all androids. Let it run all the way down to die and see if things get better after the full recharge.

2) Install the power control widget on your desktop (touch and hold on a blank area of the home screen, pick widget and then power control. This will make it easier to monitor what’s going on and minimize your running power.

3) Turn off what you don’t need:
- turn off the GPS, use the cell system for your continuous location information – home screen, menu, settings, security and location, select use wireless networks, and turn off enable GPS. Now google maps, etc. will have your location within a couple hundred yards, but you’ve turned off a continuously running GPS radio. When you want to use google maps for driving or walking directions turn the gps back on from the power control widget.
- I turn the screen brightness all the way down and never need to brighten it unless I’m using the map in direct sunlight.
- bluetooth is always off, I don’t use it.
- wifi is almost always off – I find the 3G available almost everywhere and fast enough. I will turn it on if I am using the browser at a bar/restaurant and only have edge data.
- you could turn off your data sync from the widget – but haven’t ever needed to.

4) Install task killer
- You’ll find it in the market, it’s free. It also has a desktop widget that will show you everything running and let you kill them all or one at a time.
- Kill power using background apps. Most apps do nothing if you have them in the background, but some keep the processor running at full speed or look for data all the time (a twitter ap that is listening every couple minutes for instance). If you are having bad battery life, kill everything and watch what’s running regularly to help you find power hogging aps.

5) Install apndroid. It is a one click desktop widget that turns your data on and off. You can put it on your home screen below the power control so you can quickly power off all data connections. I never do this unless I’m down to a trickle of battery and am not going to be near a charger for a while, so I can maximize my phone availability.

LAFFO

Take facebook notifications and sharing wrap them around google docs and shared google calendar and hook it all together with email and IM messaging and you pretty much have a groupware dream.

Seriously awesome.

http://www.socialwok.com/

This is pretty much what I wanted to do with the home page of Jonathan-Peterson.com but haven’t made the time.

I did it with flavors.me inside 30 minutes. awesome. google or wordpress should snap this up instantly.

http://flavors.me/jonathanpeterson

Flavors.me/jonathanpeterson

I wrote this essay back in 2001 in late August as the start of a book proposal. Any traction that it was likely to get was obliterated in the events of 9/11. But it is still one of the most heavy linked things I’ve ever written, so I’m reposting it without comments or updates. Eventually I’d like to come back to it and update.

In the long run, we must find mechanisms that will separate the interests of Falun Gong members from those of pedophiles. In the absence of such mechanisms their interests (and our interests) are identical.

- Dana Blankenhorn, A-Clue.Com

Medianet

I use the term Medianet to encompass all media content created by both professional and amateur content creators, the broadband network that transports that content and the devices attached to the network to publish and consume that content.

I will outline a rough feature set of the ideal Medianet from the point of view of the three major entities with vested interests in the evolution of the Medianet, the consumer, the publisher and the government.

While there is much commonality of interests between the three entities (fast, cheap, always available) there are also some fundamental conflicts that must be resolved. Scenarios based on potential resolution of these conflicts are both interesting and enlightening, and I believe, a rich ground for strategic planning.

The ideal consumer Medianet
The ideal consumer Medianet must be able to:

  1. Allow real-time access to any media content instantaneously
  2. Automatically translate between different content formats (i.e. audio is audio, regardless of publisher and/or streaming technology)
  3. Allow user creation and translation of any content type (consumers must be able to translate content they own or create from DVD to VHS, to QuickTime and back)
  4. Have fixed cost (Americans just don’t like variable pricing)
  5. Allow an active used content marketplace

Generally speaking, government concerns and corporate intellectual property concerns have been the only real impediments to the implementation of features that would make the ideal consumer Medianet, the technology hurdles are far from insurmountable.

The ideal publisher Medianet
In addition to instantaneous content availability, the ideal publisher Medianet must be able to:

  1. Protect the rights of the original content publisher
  2. Track consumer usage
  3. Allow great flexibility on the part of the publisher to control pricing and usage of content by consumers. The publisher should be able to give content away, charge per usage, allow a fixed number of viewings, and allow or disallow content resale
  4. Allow the publisher to differentiate offerings based on technology as well as content, thus adding a new area of competition and locking in customers
  5. Allow the publisher to create geographic region-specific content and pricing

Unsurprisingly media companies have had no real success in creating content platforms that cater to their needs instead of the needs of the consumer. I would argue that the failure of Divx vs. DVDs is directly attributable to favoring publishing companies’ interests over consumers’. SDMI will continue to flounder because the various content publishing companies have different agendas for business models and feature sets. Any medium whose distribution system disallows equal access to content from both amateur and professional publishers won’t work in a broadband
world. Defining a platform by aggregation of content type (audio, video, etc.) will work, defining a platform through the aggregation of content by publisher will
not
. Though it seems obvious, content publishers must compete on content,
not platform.

The ideal government Medianet
From a government point of view the ideal Medianet must:

  1. Disallow anonymous content
  2. Track all content exchanges
  3. Allow monitoring at any point in the network
  4. Allow content decryption on demand in real-time
  5. Archive all content exchanges

I believe the government’s needs are the hardest to logically justify, as arguably there is no such thing as criminally illegal content (i.e. there is no pedophilic content without child abuse, conspiracy to commit terrorism has nothing to do with the channel of information exchange, and violation of intellectual property is a civil issue, not a criminal one).That doesn’t mean that government will stop trying, but it does mean that government needs must be couched in terms of enabling either business (copyright violations and the CDMA) or consumer needs (privacy), or to be couched in terms of a threat to the state (terrorism) to succeed in overriding either consumer or corporate needs.

Which Master will be served?

We could try to be crisper about the ideal features, but the point is already obvious: many of these “features” are fundamentally in conflict. In fact, all features differentiating the Medianet from raw broadband ip networks are areas of contention between government, content producers and consumers. However, if the Medianet is ever to reach fruition through the evolution of the Internet these conflicts must be resolved. It is my opinion that the consumer actually
holds the most power for a variety of reasons:

Fragmentation of government interests:

Pressures against the consumer-focused Medianet are different internationally; consumer privacy against corporate intrusion is better protected in the European Union, while consumer privacy against government intrusion is better protected in the United States.

Least common denominator content is not compelling:
Countries that choose to insulate themselves from the Medianet through filtering or tightly tracked usage licensing and monitoring will be forced to create local implementations of Medianet; allowing only local content creators, and licensed content companies to distribute Medianet content, decreasing choice for consumers and increasing cost for content producers.

Any great deviation of features from the ideal consumer Medianet encourages a widespread disregard for the law or even organized internet civil disobedience:

The ease with which laws may be broken and the lack of sophistication on the part law enforcement has made the risk of technology crimes very low as the growth of web site defacement and virus creation clearly shows.

Media content is not considered property:
Civil disobedience and consumer disregard for corporate intellectual property may smack of triviality, but there is a real groundswell against the degree of corporate control of international politics in the first world. Consumers in developing nations cannot afford to pay licensing costs for Medianet content and applications from corporate sources and their governments do not have sufficient funds to protect corporate interests.

Technology influences
Some random thoughts about factors influencing the evolution towards
the Medianet:

  • A general purpose PC with a DSL connection comprises the client side of a fully functional Medianet platform but is terribly lacking in ease of use, ease of integration, stability and breadth of available content.

Closed platform vs. open platform

  • Computers are inherently general-purpose devices, able to be reconfigured without architectural changes (i.e. a Pentium with a network > card can be a radio receiver or a radio station, an e-mail client or an e-mail server, a server, a router, or a packet encrypter and relay).
  • Consumer devices are inherently single purpose devices, slight changes of function require multiple generations of hardware and content updates (stereo AM radio, digital cellular)

General purpose content applications and open source

  • Open-source development is most powerful in the creation of cool,  broad use applications (i.e. where many developers have overlapping interests), and least powerful in the creation of vertical applications (i.e. there will never be an open source hospital billing system).
  • All of the content publisher and consumer features listed as are broad use application features
  • All of the features government features listed are abhorrent to at least a sizable number of open source developers
  • If an immature, innovative company is destroyed while it is still privately held, it is increasingly likely that it’s source code will be released as open-source as part of it’s death.

Governmental reactions to internet “openness”

  • It is not inconceivable that the FTC and FCC could require all routers to be licensed and only pass through packets that have been sent from other licensed routers.
  • As it is currently described and configured, the FBI’s Carnivore software is architecturally capable of “turning off the internet” The ease of use and low cost of 802.11 (WiFi) networks is allowing the rapid evolution of a peer-to-peer encrypted Internet backchannel that is impervious to government intervention without draconian measures.
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